Clik here to view.
Yet Another Theory of the Fed? Uggh!
The world hardly needs another theory of the Fed, especially so soon after its Jackson Hole symposium. But we have a theory, too, and who knows, ours could be as close to the bulls-eye as any of the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Kevin Warsh May Be the Next Fed Head—Let’s See What He Really Thinks
As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh yesterday to discuss the potential vacancy at the Fed next February....
View ArticleClik here to view.
QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
We’ve produced some research over the years that we’d love to see the powers-that-be react to, but none more so than our look at financial flows during the QE programs. By netting all lending by banks...
View ArticleClik here to view.
2 Charts That Might Define the Fed’s Jerome Powell Era
In September, we proposed a theory of the Fed and suggested that the FOMC will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Q1 Stock Market Outlook: We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Slide
If 2018 rings in a bear market, it could look something like the Kennedy Slide of 1962. That was my conclusion in “Riding the Slide,” published in early September, where I showed that the Kennedy Slide...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Stock Risks to Watch: Choose Your Bear Market Dashboard
“Ya gadda have a praaacess” – British portfolio managers mimicking their American colleagues When long ago a former employer sent me to London to join the other Americans, or mostly Americans, building...
View ArticleClik here to view.
New Research Foretells QE Domination
The title refers to a consensus-shattering paper that was unveiled at the University of Chicago last month before a Who’s Who of economists and central bankers. Paul Krugman gave the keynote, but the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn in 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I...
View ArticleClik here to view.
TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966
In November, we argued that the business cycle rests heavily on a certain type of incremental spending—namely, spending that doesn’t require prior savings. We used the term thin-air spending power...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition
“The fact that financial markets responded in very similar ways … lends credence to the view that these actions had the expected effects on markets and are thereby providing significant support to job...
View ArticleClik here to view.
6 Reasons Why This Is (Or Isn’t) The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression
When the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee draws the boundaries on the current recession, it’s unlikely to stand out as an especially long one. In fact, by the time the committee publishes the...
View Article
